After a few years playing OOTP, if there’s one thing that I’ve yet to figure out is how exactly a minor league prospect (or suspect) will do when he finally reaches the bigs. Maybe it’s just me, but I’ve really had a hard time figuring this out. In my solo leagues, some blue-chip, can’t miss p’spects have failed DRAMATICALLY, while some not so well rated kids did much better than expected when called up.

Now, I know that OOTP is no APBA, Statis-Pro or any other of those old board games that were meant to simulate real life as closely as possible. And, I’m also aware that this is how things work with prospects in real life, of course (some big time kids don’t pan out, while some sleepers turn out to be studs).

So, taking all that into consideration, how could we find and develop our own way of evaulating a minor leaguer’s potential, when his numbers down on the farm are clearly no sure indication?

Enter MLE’s.

I’m pretty sure most of you already know what “major league equivalents” are. You take a certain minor leaguer’s numbers and convert them by using a rather complicated formula, originally devised by highly respected baseball historian and statistician Bill James.

After a long time of trying to find any formula that could help me get those complicated MLE’s down, I found an EXCELLENT site that offers just that:

http://minorleaguesplits.com/mlecalc.html

All you have to do is enter a certain player’s stats, the level, league and team that he played for, (plus the team you want him to play for at the bigs) and the page takes care of the entire conversion, providing you with what I believe would be an excellent estimate of how your player will do at the big league level.

I’ve already tried it with 25-yr. old prospect Jason Romano, who led my AAA affiliate in HR’s and RBI’s last year, to see if he’s really worth a shot for a starting role in the future and this is what I got:

Romano’s numbers at AAA Oklahoma City in 2004: .252 BA, 507 AB, 106 R, 128 H, 17 2B, 5 3B, 37 HR, 97 RBI, 66 BB, 76 K, 17 SB, 3 CS, 4 HB

His converted stats to Texas: .211, 525, 84, 111, 14, 4, 28, 76, 48, 82, 14, 5, 3

Now, as you can see, the guy wouldn’t hit enough to deserve a starting spot. But his pop, sb potential, eye and ability to avoid K’s may just make him a solid reserve for me in the future. So this MLE converter could certainly help us all find out just what kind of role should some of our young players play with the parent club and maybe, help us save some $ and trouble negotiating with veteran FA’s who may not be worth it. Especially for bench roles.

All things considered, the conversion may not turn out to be 100% accurate, of course. But I believe it can be a good indicator, plus…making some of these conversions can be a lot of fun!