Jake Peavy heard so many rumors last season and this offseason he was being traded, that he really never felt at home in Chicago and lived in his suitcase in hotels on the South Side.

“I’m looking forward to going to San Diego, buying a house, and settling in. I can’t wait to meet the guys, and pitch in a pitchers dream ballpark, Petco Park.” Peavy said.

San Diego shipped out fan favorite, Rookie Of The Year, CF Grady Sizemore. Also heading to the Cubs is SP Tony Armas Jr., and MR Ben Hendrickson.

“Losing a guy like Grady makes me feel sick to my stomach. If CF Freddy Guzman wasn’t ready to take over in Center for us, I’d never in my wildest, pull the trigger on a trade like this. I think Guz is ready; he already can win Gold Gloves, and his speed has been there, so it’s just a matter of adjusting to Major League pitching.” GM Mike Orav said.

GM Will Keathley of the Cubs was quoted today as saying, “It’s hard to trade away the second best pitcher in the league, but Armas Jr. is no slouch and Sizemore is two years away from Arbitration. Peavy makes $9.5M from Arbitration this year.”

So, was this deal a financial one? Many analysts think in the short term, yes. But both Peavy and Sizemore will command multi-million dollar, long-term contracts in the next couple years.
It appears, the Padres have positioned themselves per the “Orav Model” as the GM notably said his long-term philosophy would be to win by using strong pitching, superior defense, and timely hitting.

“Guzman, we believe, is an upgrade defensively. We also thought that the best overall player in the trade (Peavy) is coming our way. So we get stronger on defense and pitching in this deal. We also think in getting SP Zack Duke, that our 4 man rotation is the “Best in the West” and will need to chill the hot bats of our division foes.” Orav later quipped.

The Cubs offense looks stacked with Delgado, V-Mart and Sheffield. That gives a lot of protection to a guy like Sizemore and he should see plenty of good pitches to hit; and that will increase his production.
Are Cy Young and MVP awards awaiting these two studs? Only time will tell…

Despite posting a 6.25 ERA in 72 innings for Arizona, the Yankees have high hopes for Kim. In a press conference this morning, the Yankees highlighted Kim’s young age, high strikeout ratio, and past performance. The team also sees promise in Kim’s unusually high BABIP last season which might explain his troubles.

Kim joins an already crowded bullpen in New York, a factor which likely contributed to the dealing of Rivera. Brad Lidge seems the heir-apparent to the closer role, while Jonathan Broxton will likely join Kim in setup duties. Considering the Yankees still have Matt Capps and Jamie Cerda waiting in AAA, the team might have the strongest crew of relievers in the AL. The Yankees have indicated they are still willing to trade Lidge or another top reliever for a position player, hoping to fully capitalize on their bullpen depth.

The move is viewed predominately as a salary dump by the top-heavy Yankees, who pay some of the largest contracts in baseball. After finishing last in the majors with a 66-96 record, the team’s finances were quickly becoming unsustainable.

The dealing of Rivera mirrors others made by the Yankees this year, including trades that sent Derek Jeter to the Twins, Bernie Williams to the Rangers, and Alfonso Soriano to the Braves. In place of these formerly core players, and their correspondingly large contracts, the Yankees received a number of young veterans and prospects including Torii Hunter, Mark Buehrle, Jerome Williams, and Wandy Rodriguez. The team hopes these players can contribute to a winning season in 2005.

Exerpts from the press conference……..
First I would like to announce the signing of free agent SP Ted Lilly. We signed Ted today to a 3 year deal with an option (Team) for a 4th. We in the front office feel this is a much friendlier confines for a SP then he had previously been pitching at and we expect a nice turn-around for the 28 year old south paw.

Lilly joins us today along with Adrian Beltre (Loud applause is heard). We acquired Adrian today in a deal with the Dodgers which sent up and coming power hitter MArk Reynolds to the LA Dodgers. We feel the 25 year old slugger will continue to belt out home runs and annoy the competition with his gold glove caliber defense at 3b. With the ability to steal some bases as well he should be a mainstay in the Met lineup for years to come…

I would like to conclude the press conference by saying Mets fans everywhere should expect a few more deals in the days to come… Weather they be free agents or trades, THAT I will leave up to you to contemplate and discuss on WFAN until I announce them. Grin

With that GM/Owner/Manager/ Team idiot Patriss left the podium.

The phones on WFAN radio immediately started to go nuts.
“Lilly’s a bum!”
“Welcome Adrian”
“Beltre and Piazza i nthe same lineup!!!”
“Lilly will be an ACE!”

As you can see the outcry was a bit mixed but this reporter thinks we should wait to see what the Mets do on the field before judging the team idiot too harshly…

In the first round of the NL Playoffs the Atlanta Braves (92-70)(Winners of the NL East) face the San Diego Padres (85-77)(Winners of the NL West).

Head to Head Matchup:

CATCHER
Javy Lopez (Atl) Lopez put up similiar numbers from last seasib matching his 27 Homeruns with 75 RBIs. With the number of power hitters in the Braves Lineup; Lopez makes a very strong number eight hitter in the line up. Lopez threw out 38% of attempted base stealers.

Jason Kendall (SD) Kendall saw a 40 point drop in his batting average this season, but is one of the most respected catchers in the game. Known for calling a superior game and for being a team leader. Kendall threw out 28% of attempted base runners.

Advantage: BRAVES

FIRST BASE
Wes Helms (Atl) Helms showed good power but went into a slump toward the end of the season and ended with a batting average just over .250. Helms did hit 26 Homeruns and drive in 90 runs.

Ryan Klesko/Phil Nevin (SD) The platoon situation worked well for the Padres. The two combined for 25 homeruns and 112 RBIs. Both hit in the 250s and give a Padres a solid player off the bench when not playing.

Adavantage: EVEN

SECOND BASE
Marcus Giles (Atl) Giles missed a portion of the season due to injury. Giles hit 278 from the two spot in the order.

Jeff Keppinger (SD) Keppinger was a pleasant surprise for the Padres after dealing Orlando Hudson. Keppinger hit 300 and while only making one error in the field after being called up from Triple A

Advantage: Padres

SHORTSTOP
Rafael Furcal (Atl) The Braves leadoff hitter hit 290 and stole 24 bases this season. Furcal is the table setter for the power bats in the order. Furcal won his first gold glove last season and posted better stats this season with only 14 errors at shortstop.

Jack Wilson (SD) Wilson acquired in a trade from Pittsburgh did not handle the adjustment to West Coast very well. Wilson hit 202, but used his glove to stay in the game. Wilson commmited only 13 errors in 1310 innings.

Advantage: Braves

THIRD BASE
Chipper Jones (Atl) Chipper had another quality year for the Braves. Chipper hit 301 with 32 Homeruns and 103 RBIs. Jones was an All Star this season and is on the MVP list this season

Vinny Castilla (SD) A gamble that payed off huge for the Padres Management. Vinny Cash-steal-ya (as he is known in Tampa Bay) had a monster season leading the Padres with 45 Homeruns and 145 RBIs. Vinny will need a big series as one of the run producers on the team

Advantage: Padres (painfully for me to say) Wink

OUTFIELD
Alfonso Soriano (LF), Andrew Jones (CF), Ken Griffey Jr (RF) Three potentials all stars roam the outfield for the Braves. Jones and Griffey had 30+ and 100+ RBI season while Soriano hit 291 with 8 Home run and 29 RBIs after the late August trade that brought Soriano to Atlanta. The three give the Braves a lot of power at the 4, 5 and 6 spot in the order.

Grady Sizemore (LF), Jason Tyner (CF), Luke Scott (RF) More bold moves by Padres Management. Tyner was a late season trade to add some speed to the order, Luke Scott was this years first round pick and only spent 13 games in AAA before being called up and is in the running for Rookie of the Year after a half a season in the majors. Grady Sizemore is in the running for NL MVP and NL Rookie of the Year. Quite a feat for the young players in San Diego.

Advantage: Braves due to experience in the Playoffs

STARTING PITCHING:
John Smoltz, Greg Maddux, Odalis Perez, Josh Johnson (Atl) The 4 potential starters for the Braves carry an ERA of 4.02 or lower with John Smoltz having a 3.82 to lead the staff. The three veterans will start the first games with the Braves first round draft pick of this season starting game 4. Smoltz and Maddux should be in Hall of Fame one day.

Brian Lawrence, John Smiley, Kevin Tapani, Zach Day (SD) All 4 potential starters for the Padres carry an ERA under 4 while 3 have 14 or more wins. None are household names, but the stats prove they are a starting staff that should be mentioned with the best in the league.

Advantage: At first look Braves with the household names, but look at the numbers and it’s a very even match up.

BULLPEN

Braves: Braves moves John Rocker out of the closer spot and added youngster Fernando Cabrera to to solidify the back of the bullpen. The rest of the pen is archored by fellow rookies and young arms. Few have any playoff experience.

Padres: Mike Gonzalez had an outstanding year as the Padres close essentially making it 8 innings games. Gonzalez had 41 saves to lead the league, made the All star team, ERA of 1.82 with a WHIP under 1 and only blew 3 saves all season. The Padres fill out the pen with strong young arms with a few years of experience.

Advantage: Padres

Tough call and close series and I am biased..so I say Braves in 6 games

——————————————————————-

CHICAGO, IL

Since the existence of baseball, there has always been a heated debate between baseball fans, can good pitching stop good hitting or does good hitting triumph over good pitching? In the upcoming American League Championship Series between the Baltimore Orioles and the Chicago White Sox, the debate will finally be answered. The Orioles and White Sox both hold the two best records in the league for the 2004 season but took different paths getting there.

The Baltimore Orioles have become a major force in the once tough American League East. They have established the best pitching staff in the American League with a solid foundation of good young arms led by Seo, Towers, and potential rookie of the year Noah Lowry. The young trio each posted 15+ wins topped off by Lowry’s amazing rookie season with 18 wins. Add to the fact that he posted an excellent 2.93 ERA and had 203 strike outs, and you easily have one of the best pitching performances by a rookie in recent memory. The Orioles also boast a solid bullpen anchored by a filthy closer in B.J. Ryan and his 41 saves. This incredible pitching staff has caused nightmares for many hitters throughout the league and they will look to shut down the juggernaut offense of the Chicago White Sox in order to reach the World Series.

This past season everything clicked perfect for the White Sox offense, or either their players were just overdosing on HGH before games. Either way, the White Sox offense powered its way into creating history by dethroning the 1997 Seattle Mariners as the single season home run leaders by clubbing an astounding 274 home runs during the 2004 season. Led by the likes of Ordonez, Lee, Matsui, Ramirez, and LaRoche, the White Sox relied on the long ball in order to beat their opponents as they sported one of the worst pitching staffs in the league. The White Sox offense will look to capitalize on any mistakes made by the Baltimore pitching staff but that will be a tall order to accomplish. If the White Sox hitters can’t produce against the Oriole pitching, then it could be a quick exit and an early fishing trip for the Sox.

This match up will finally settle the ancient baseball dispute of which is better, good hitting or good pitching. This ALCS has the makings to become an instant classic. So stay tuned folks because this will be one for the ages.

——————————————————————-

ATLANTA, GA

Two NL East teams will face off for the NL Crown. The Atlanta Braves (92-70); winner of the NL East, will face off with the rival Philadelphia Phillies (87-75); Wild Card winner. Both teams swept their oppenent in the Division Series with the Phillies pulling off the upset over the heavily favored Pirates.

Head to Head Matchup:

CATCHER
Javy Lopez (Atl) Lopez put up similiar numbers from last season matching his 27 Homeruns with 75 RBIs. With the number of power hitters in the Braves Lineup; Lopez makes a very strong number eight hitter in the line up. Lopez threw out 38% of attempted base stealers.

Johnny Estrada (Phi) Another catcher hitting in the eighth spot in the order. Estrada had a fine season hitting 289 with 13 homeruns and 68 RBIs. He rarely strikes out and it s solid contact hitter. Estrada threw out 29.2% of attempted base stealers

Advantage: Even Lopez offers more power, but Estrada makes more contact and rarely strikes out.

FIRST BASE
Wes Helms (Atl) Helms showed good power but went into a slump toward the end of the season and ended with a batting average just over .250. Helms did hit 26 Homeruns and drive in 90 runs.

Eric Valent (Phi) The potential Rookie of the Year candidate had a very good season espically for a rookie. Valent hit 289 with 30 homeruns and 109 RBIs. As the stage get bigger how will the rookie handle the pressure?

Adavantage: Phillies Valent beats Helms in every offensive category

SECOND BASE
Marcus Giles (Atl) Giles missed a portion of the season due to injury. Giles hit 278 from the two spot in the order.

Nick Punto (Phi) Punto will not wow anyone with his stats, but as with everyone else in the Phillies line; Punto had double digit home runs and does a solid job moving baserunners along for the big hitters in the line up. Much like Giles

Advantage: Even Giles and Punto are twins, seperated at birth Grin

SHORTSTOP
Rafael Furcal (Atl) The Braves leadoff hitter hit 290 and stole 24 bases this season. Furcal is the table setter for the power bats in the order. Furcal won his first gold glove last season and posted better stats this season with only 14 errors at shortstop.

Jimmy Rollins (Phi) The Phillies leadoff hitter had an outstanding year hitting 292, scoring 124 runs and stealing 76 bases (leading the SBSL). He creates havok on the base paths. Rollins also only had 10 errors at short this season.

Advantage: Phillies Rollins is the one of the best SS in the league

THIRD BASE
Chipper Jones (Atl) Chipper had another quality year for the Braves. Chipper hit 301 with 32 Homeruns and 103 RBIs. Jones was an All Star this season and is on the MVP list this season

Scott Rolen (Phi) Rolen hit 21 homeruns and drove in 86 RBIs, but only hit 232 this season. Rolen has always been a reliable player for the Phillies. Rolen has won the Gold Glove the past two season.

Advantage: Braves Chipper out slugs Rolen in the offensive categories.

OUTFIELD
Alfonso Soriano (LF), Andrew Jones (CF), Ken Griffey Jr (RF) Three potentials all stars roam the outfield for the Braves. Jones and Griffey had 30+ and 100+ RBI season while Soriano hit 291 with 8 Home run and 29 RBIs after the late August trade that brought Soriano to Atlanta. The three give the Braves a lot of power at the 4, 5 and 6 spot in the order.

Pat Burrell (LF), Rocco Baldelli (CF), Bobby Abreu (RF) Three solid outfielders for the Philles. Each hit double digit homeruns. Abreu hit 22 homeruns and drove in 101 runs and scored 110 runs. Baldelli does a little bit of everything well. He hits for average, shows a little power, runs the bases well and is a very good defensive player. Burrell is a all or nothing hitter. He hit 21 home runs and drove in 93 RBIs and drew 94 walks.

Advantage: Braves The Atlanta outfielders outslug the Phillies outfielders head to head

STARTING PITCHING:
John Smoltz, Greg Maddux, Odalis Perez, Josh Johnson (Atl) The 4 potential starters for the Braves carry an ERA of 4.02 or lower with John Smoltz having a 3.82 to lead the staff. The three veterans will start the first games with the Braves first round draft pick of this season starting game 4. Smoltz and Maddux should be in Hall of Fame one day.

Randy Wolf, Brandon Duckworth, Brett Myers (Phi) These 3 pitchers started in the Division Series for the Philles. Wolf is the ace of the staff with an ERA under 4 and leading the team with 17 wins. Myers and Duckworth struggled to keep their ERAs down, but pitched well enough to keep their team in the game.

Advantage: Braves Deeper starting staff

BULLPEN

Braves: Braves moves John Rocker out of the closer spot and added youngster Fernando Cabrera to to solidify the back of the bullpen. The rest of the pen is archored by fellow rookies and young arms. Few have any playoff experience.

Phillies Jonathan Papelbon is a solid closer for the Phillies. Papelbon had 25 saves, but an ERA over 4. The rest of the staff is young. Wayne Gomes is the surprise player in the bullpen; after spending all season in the minor he was added to the playoff roster and pitched well in situations in the Divisional Series

Advantage: Braves The stats look better for the Braves, but both staffs are young and unknown heading into a playoff atmosphere

It all comes down can the Phillies outslug the Braves hitters. The Braves seem to have the advantage in pitching, but the Phillies won the head to head series this year 10 games to 9

Again being biased Braves in 6

——————————————————————-

BALTIMORE, MD

The age-old question of whether good pitching stops good hitting appears to have been settled, at least until tomorrow. The bats, in the person of Aramis Ramirez and the slugging Chicago White Sox, have spoken.

The Sox quashed the debate last night, 12-3, in the deciding seventh game of the American League Championship Series.

For the Orioles, it was a heartbreaking loss after battling back from a 3-games-to-1 deficit to force the seventh game. Starter Pat Hengen was rocked early and did not survive the fourth inning.

In the first game of the hard fought series, it was all pitching, as Sox starter Jeremy Bonderman outdueled rookie of the year candidate Noah Lowry for a 2-1 Chicago victory. Bonderman allowed just one run and five hits over eight innings. Lowry’s sole mistake was surrendering a two-run home run by Sox catcher Javier Valentin in the fifth inning.

Game Two saw the O’s rebound and their bats come alive. The Birds chased Chicago starter Kyle Lohse, pounding out four home runs in the first two innings for five runs, and never looking back enroute to an 8-2 win.

Game Three was anything but a pitchers’ duel. The two teams field a total of 13 pitchers who gave up 31 hits over nine tumultuous innings. Down 9-6 in the bottom of the eighth, with Camden Yards fans screaming themselves hoarse, the Orioles scored two runs to pull within a single run. But the White Sox silenced the crowd in the top of the ninth by scoring twice and reclaiming the three run margin. The Birds showed some resiliency in the bottom of the frame, scoring twice, but unable to tie it, and the 11-10 lost gave the White Sox a 2-1 series lead.

Game Four was equally heartbreaking as closer B.J. Ryan gave up a solo home run to Sox 2B Ray Durham in the top of the 10th inning. Chicago closer Keith Foulke shut down the Birds in the bottom of the tenth and the White Sox claimed a 3-2 victory and a commanding three-games-to-one series lead.

Facing elimination in Game Five, the Orioles gave fans something to smile about, a 4-3 victory that featured a rematch of Game One starters Bonderman and Lowry. This time Lowry had the edge, yielding 3 runs over 7 innings, while Bonderman was tagged for 4 runs over six-and-two-thirds innings.

Game Six saw unheralded Orioles catcher Geronimo Gil rise to the occasion. Gil, who batted .215 during the regular season, had already been enjoying a great postseason at the bottom of the line-up, batting .321 with 6 RBIs through the first give games. In the sixth game Gil slugged a two-run, two-out double to break the game open in the bottom of the eighth. This locked in a 7-3 Orioles victory and sent the dramatic series to the deciding Game 7.

The seventh game, played out before more than 44,000 fans at Cellular Field, was decided fairly quickly as White Sox bats chased the normally reliable O’s starter Pat Hentgen. Hentgen went to the showers after just three and two-innings after surrendering six runs, including a two-run third inning shot into the upper decks by slugger Aramis Ramirez.

The Sox blew the doors open with four more in the sixth, enroute to a convincing 12-3 victory and the American League pennant. Orioles players and coaches watched from the visitors’ dugout as White Sox players piled onto each at the mound. “I want to remember this,” said young third baseman David Wright, “I want to be out there next season.”

Ramirez was named Most Valuable Player of the series, contributing an astounding 13 RBIs, 5 home runs and a .348 average over the seven games.

In the Orioles locker room, attendants quickly stowed away cases of chilled champagne before the players returned. Hours after the game, a dejected Brian Roberts had few words. “We are proud of what we did this year, but to come so close to the World Series and not get there is tough.” His voice broke. “Its just tough.” Roberts, who prior to the start of the series had signed a six year, $38 million contract extension, would take no further questions and retreated to the trainer’s room.

The only loud talk came from designated hitter Mo “Hit Dog” Vaughn, signed as a free agent in mid-season, credited by many with catapulting the Orioles to the AL East title. “Birds be back!” Vaughn shouted around the locker room to anyone who would listen. “Birds be back in oh-five, baby!”

And somewhere Casey Stengel is smiling. Stengel famously said once, “Good pitching will always stop good hitting. And vice-versa.” This series proved that vice versa true.

——————————————————————-

ATLANTA, GA

This season’s match up is the record breaking power homerun power of the Chicago White Sox vs the big name power hitters of the Atlanta Braves. The two teams combined for 491 homeruns. The White Sox were number 1 in the AL while the Braves were number 1 in the NL in home runs. Other comparisons are valid for the teams..their team batting averages was only .002 points apart and both teams had the same record in the regular season.

Questions will surround the DH. The Braves don’t have a strong player to plug into the DH spot while in Chicago; while the White Sox will lose a big bat in the line up when the series moves to Atlanta. Rumor has it the Braves will use a tandem of Reed Johnson and Matt Kata. It is unclear who the White Sox will pull out of their line up when in Atlanta. Do you remove Carlos Lee with 40 homeruns, Matsui with 36 homers or Ordonez with 32???

It could come down to what else???…pitching. The White Sox posted a 4.76 ERA while the Braves was 3.98. The White Sox though have a 20 game winner in Jeremy Bonderman, but three starters posted losing records. Set up man Eric Eckenstahler posted a 7-0 record and closer Keith Folke had 8 wins, 29 saves and a WHIP under 1. The Braves strength is well known to be the starters as the four starters in the World Series have an ERA right around four. The Braves bullpen is young and closer Fernando Cabrera has posted 19 saves, and an ERA 1.56 since being moved into the closers role.

This has the makings of a classic

Heading into the season, the White Sox were widely regarded as having a powerhouse lineup led by the power of Magglio Ordonez, Carlos Lee, Hideki Matsui, Aramis Ramirez, and rookie Adam LaRoache. Seven players had 20 or more home runs and their whole lineup had at least double digit home runs. Chicago’s mammoth lineup helped lead the way to a division crown, although their pitching staff ranks among the worst in the league.

Chicago’s main strategy during the season was to just out score and out power their opponents. Luckily for this team it worked. The White Sox currently are set to open their first round match up in the Division series against the Oakland Athletics at home.

The baseball world will be watching to see if this team is legit enough to mash their way to a World Series title, or if their bad pitching staff will finally catch up to them.

Now, I know that OOTP is no APBA, Statis-Pro or any other of those old board games that were meant to simulate real life as closely as possible. And, I’m also aware that this is how things work with prospects in real life, of course (some big time kids don’t pan out, while some sleepers turn out to be studs).

So, taking all that into consideration, how could we find and develop our own way of evaulating a minor leaguer’s potential, when his numbers down on the farm are clearly no sure indication?

Enter MLE’s.

I’m pretty sure most of you already know what “major league equivalents” are. You take a certain minor leaguer’s numbers and convert them by using a rather complicated formula, originally devised by highly respected baseball historian and statistician Bill James.

After a long time of trying to find any formula that could help me get those complicated MLE’s down, I found an EXCELLENT site that offers just that:

http://minorleaguesplits.com/mlecalc.html

All you have to do is enter a certain player’s stats, the level, league and team that he played for, (plus the team you want him to play for at the bigs) and the page takes care of the entire conversion, providing you with what I believe would be an excellent estimate of how your player will do at the big league level.

I’ve already tried it with 25-yr. old prospect Jason Romano, who led my AAA affiliate in HR’s and RBI’s last year, to see if he’s really worth a shot for a starting role in the future and this is what I got:

Romano’s numbers at AAA Oklahoma City in 2004: .252 BA, 507 AB, 106 R, 128 H, 17 2B, 5 3B, 37 HR, 97 RBI, 66 BB, 76 K, 17 SB, 3 CS, 4 HB

His converted stats to Texas: .211, 525, 84, 111, 14, 4, 28, 76, 48, 82, 14, 5, 3

Now, as you can see, the guy wouldn’t hit enough to deserve a starting spot. But his pop, sb potential, eye and ability to avoid K’s may just make him a solid reserve for me in the future. So this MLE converter could certainly help us all find out just what kind of role should some of our young players play with the parent club and maybe, help us save some $ and trouble negotiating with veteran FA’s who may not be worth it. Especially for bench roles.

All things considered, the conversion may not turn out to be 100% accurate, of course. But I believe it can be a good indicator, plus…making some of these conversions can be a lot of fun!

Keathley told us that last years 2st round pick Mark Teahan will move to LF next season to accomodate the addition of Sheffield at 3rd. “It weakens our D at 3rd, but improves in in left, so we’re ok with that trade-off, especially considering the offense will be upgraded tremendously at both positions” Keathley said.

When asked if this deal meant the Cubs were done adding payroll this offseason, Keathley proclaimed “Ownership has given me approval to make any deal that makes us a better ballclub, we’ve got some huge contracts (Sosa’s 17 million) coming off the books soon and the goal is the win the world series at any cost.

So how do you allocate your limited dollars to maximize payroll efficiency (wins per dollar of payroll)? Turns out that is an extremely complicated question to answer and there’s tons of academic and other research on this topic–not surprising given that MLB is a multi-billion dollar industry and there’s alot riding on the answer!!! It’s surprisingly hard to calculate how much a win costs, and even harder to then relate that to a player and figure out how many extra wins he’s gonna get you to determine what if anything the guy’s worth. Since I was stumped, I had to come up with a different way.

I decided instead to look at win shares and see how much each player contributes to a team’s win total. This way you can look at where a team’s wins come from and compare it to your payroll and see where you’re out of whack, or where you’re ahead of the game and maybe have room to spend.

The win shares data I got from this site http://casdra.com/winshares/index.html#nl_west where the guy lists win shares for all players for last year.

Here are the win shares by position (roughly, i mean, i didn’t add up every guy that pitched in the fifth spot, just the guy that did the best there. the rest i categorized as MRs) for last year’s LA Dogs:

SP1: 30
SP2: 27
SP3: 23
SP4: 14
SP5: 8

CL: 20
MR: 11
MR: 7
MR: 6
MR: 5
MR: 3
MR: 2
MR: 1
MR 1
(again some of these MRs were spot starters/spent time in the rotation)

C: 10
1b: 15
2b: 18
ss: 15
3b: 17
LF: 19
CF: 26
RF: 26
4th OF: 11 (here again, i didn’t try to allocate pierre’s totals to LF, just broke him out separate)
Util IF:2
none of the other util guys had a positive number

Now convert this into payroll, assuming $100MM payroll and where your money is about evenly divided between offense and defense

SP1: $9.5MM
SP2: $8.5MM
SP3: $7.3MM
SP4: $4.4MM
SP5: $2.5MM

CL: $6.3MM
MR: $3.5MM
MR: $2.2MM
MR: $1.9MM
MR: $1.6MM
MR: $950K
MR: $630k
MR: $320k
MR $320k

C: $3.1MM
1b: $4.7MM
2b: $5.7MM
ss: $4.7MM
3b: $5.3MM
LF: $6.0MM
CF: $8.2MM
RF: $8.2MM
4th OF: $3.5MM
Util IF:$630k

How useful is this information? Hell if I know. Certainly, I’m not saying you should pay your raking C only $3MM a year. In fact, maybe just the raw win share data is more useful just so you can see where your wins come from (REMINDER: the win shares data is for the 2009 Dodgers only, not indicative of where your specific team gets its performance), and then you can decide what that’s worth to you, and where you should scrimp and save–like on your fourth reliever/lefty specialist!!!

Anyway, I hope this starts some thinking/conversation on payroll, because like I say, there are some real payroll challenges in this league in terms of inherited contracts, a cash maximum, salary cap, etc. and then throw in the fact that you can sign old guys off the FA scrap heap for $300k and turn them into studs (just remember to give them that extension first!!!!) and you see that the payroll question gets very complicated very quickly. But here’s to hoping this at least provides food for thought and helps people thinking about whether that big trade makes financial sense or how much to offer that guy you’re eyeing in free agency. I guess my goal is to figure out a way to make better financial decisions for myself and the next guy that contemplates giving Rusty G $20+!!!!! And to be clear, I’m not arguing for rules changes, but rather looking for better decisions within the structure we have (which already has a recalc, no CEIs, and other protections built in to protect the money you do end up spending).

Q: So we hear rumors of Jake Peavy for Manny Ramirez, how much truth is there with that rumor?
A: We were contacted by the Red Sox and told them Peavy was still available but there is no interest in bringing Manny to Chicago. We don’t need two Sammy Sosas.

Q: So Peavy is still available? And what’s it going to take for a team to get him?
A: Yes, every player on the roster can be had for the right deal, this is a business, we are not concerned with fan reaction or loyalty. We want to make the team better and win, plain and simple. To get Jake, it’ll take 4 or 5 players who will provide immediate production for our club, similar to when we traded A-rod and Luis Gonzalez for 5 players in 03 with Montreal. Peavy is a better player than A-Rod, and still in the arbitration years, so he’s still underpaid for his skillset.

Q: So what types of players are the Cubs going to go after in the offseason?
A: We’re looking to get better defensively and help out pitchers live up to their potential. We’ve got 3 starters with A+ stuff and right now they are being let down by the defensive ability of our current roster.

Q: Any players you think you’re going to go after?
A: We’ve got some guys targeted, but can’t really tip our hand yet.

Q: So you’ve been here 3 years and the Cubs have yet to make any major strides towards your goal of winning the World Series, how long of a window do you think you have for that promise to come true?
A: The owners have given me a positive review and say my job is safe through ‘07 when my contract is up, but if we don’t win 90 games and make the playoffs this year, I’m stepping down as GM of the Cubs. The fans of Chicago deserve a better product on the field and if I can’t deliver it, I should be somewhere else.

Q: Wow, so you’re publicly saying 90 wins or you leave town?
A: That’s correct, post it in the blogs, it’s 100% going to happen.

Q: You fired Mark Grace midway through ‘04 and took over yourself, what’s the plan for the manager position for next season?
A: We don’t have any top candidates right now, I’ve been focused on the roster and we’ll figure out who makes out the lineup card and gets the credit sometime in January. We knows, maybe I’ll control my own fate for another season.

RATIONALE: Rather than the strong starting pitching teams, I chose the Red Sox as my template (to say nothing of CHA and ATL, both of which I think fit this mold)–that is, try to build a mashing offense to get ahead in games; have decent starters that could at least keep me in games (also easier when your lineup rakes); and a nasty bullpen that allows you to win games in which you’re ahead and keep close games in which you’re behind. It also tends to be much cheaper to acquire and pay relievers than it is to try to acquire quality SPs. I think of it kinda like the NFL, where it’s easier to build a competitive team around a sweet defense and a game-manager type at QB (more of them and they cost a lot less) than it is to keep trying to draft and develop (and pay) the next Peyton Manning or Tom Brady.

MINORS: I was gifted a minor league system that included Zach Greinke, one of the best SP spects in the game, as well as Ryan Ludwick, Luis Gonzalez, and MR Chad Gaudin. Ludwick and Gonzalez were key parts in 2004 and are likely to be central to the team’s effort going forward–they’re young, cheap, and rake at premium positions. Gonzalez put up .770 OPS and scored near 90 runs while playing strong defense at both 2B and 3B. Ludwick went for .870 OPS while spending most of his time in RF, but his real value is as a mashing CF, where he’s passable defensively. Greinke went for a 3.6 ERA and 4.4 FIP. He was fully cooked by the end of the season, so if I’m lucky, he’ll put up stats closer to the former rather than the latter for a number of seasons to come. Gaudin also enjoyed a strong rookie campaign (2.1 ERA, 2.7 FIP), and I see him and guys like Gavin Floyd and Chae-Sung Baek as key parts of my pen in future years.

TRADES: As a result of this decision to build from the back, I set out looking for relievers I could acquire on the cheap but that could be useful, even if in specialty roles. That explains the trades that brought in Gavin Floyd (part of a package deal) and CS Baek (for Cody Ransom). Similarly, the Floyd trade brought starter Tony Saunders, a guy who consistently puts up ERAs in the high 3s to low 4s. That’s the definition of “keeping you in games” and certainly serviceable for a guy at the back end of my rotation.

FREE AGENCY: I grabbed a bunch of relievers off the FA scrap heap, including Bobby Ayala, Graeme Lloyd, and some others. Other than Lloyd, which performed well in a lefty specialist role, none of the other guys did much and so will be jettisoned this offseason in search of more viable options. Another thing I learned about this league over the course of the season was how useful a recalc or two can be. With that in mind, I signed some oldsters with great past seasons in the form of Moises Alou and Rafael Palmiero. I signed them to cheap multi-year extensions, and one or both of them I’m likely to recalc based on their fully roided out past numbers just prior to the start of the 2005 season. Stay tuned to see how that goes.

EXTENSIONS: I really had no players of merit due for free agency, with the exception of the once-great Robb Nen. I signed him to a reasonable, but not real cheap, multi-year deal with the thought that if I decide not to recalc one of the hitters, then I may use that option on Nen, who was really and truly dominant in the late 90s and early 00s. That would give me the lock-down closer I covet.

DRAFT: I’ve covered it in detail elsewhere, but suffice to say, with starters hard to come by in trade and none of any value available in FA, drafting and developing can be a very good option. Here’s to hoping that Gallardo develops *and* gains some endurance (whether as a result of rules changes or use of participation points, I’ve gotta get this done to make the high first-round pick make sense). If everything goes according to Hoyle, he and Greinke give me a formidable duo at the top of the rotation in two or three seasons’ time.

In the final analysis, I guess it comes down to the fact that I’m just not that patient and want to win sooner rather than later. So instead of waiting for Gallardo to develop and using the ensuing seasons to, say, draft more quality starters, I think I can take a shortcut to competitiveness by acquiring relievers and hitters (and allowing for a recalc or two here and there) relatively cheaply. By the time the older recalced dudes are ready to retire or just collapse from old age, here’s to hoping that my young starters will be ready to go.